Friday, December 28, 2012

Let's Talk Money

With all of the talk of proposed gun bans and compulsory buy-backs, I've yet to hear anyone address the economic impact.  Not that it hasn't been addressed, just that *I* haven't run across it yet, so while talking to Jay today we tried to figure it out in our noggins.

That was super hard to do in our heads, so once we got home, I started digging.  I, of course, did it the hard way.  And then, I ran across the NSSF Industry Economic Impact Report.  I don't know why I didn't think of just looking there in the first place, as I'm a member.  Colossal brain fart on my part.

First, though, let's look at the proposed "Compulsory Buy-Back".  There are an estimated 310,000,000 guns in America.  On the low end of the proposed "payment", they're talking $200/gun.  On the high end, $500/gun.
  • 310,000,000 x $200 = $62,000,000,000
  • 310,000,000 x $500 = $155,000,000,000
I don't know about you, but that's a whole lot of damn money.  Money that we, as a country, don't necessarily have.  But don't worry, the government will just print more. Never mind that it will further devalue our already weak dollar.

Now, let's look at the worst-case scenario - that eventually the "Assault Weapons Ban" gets passed and gradually increases to encompass all guns, so that we are a gun-free nation.  What does that do to our economy?  Obama's got to consider that, because he's already in the hot seat for our unemployment rate.

From the NSSF Report:
Companies in the United States that manufacture, distribute and sell firearms, ammunition and hunting equipment employ as many as 98,752 people in the country and generate an additional 110,998 jobs in supplier and ancillary industries. These include jobs in companies supplying goods and services to manufacturers, distributors and retailers, as well as those that depend on sales to workers in the firearms and ammunition industry. [1]
These are good jobs, paying an average of $46,858 in wages and benefits. And today, every job is important. In fact, in the United States the unemployment rate has reached 8.2 percent. This means that there are already 13,430,000 people trying to find jobs in the state and collecting unemployment benefits. [2]
That's over 200,000 people employed in the firearms-related industry.   200,000+ people who are not collecting unemployment, who are contributing their hard-earned money to help support our country.

The Economic Impact numbers boggle my mind (again from the NSSF Report):

And the taxes paid:

Looking at these numbers actually calms me down.  Why?  Because it doesn't make business sense to cripple our firearms industry.  No matter the emotions involved, I would expect that the political advisors would take into consideration the economic impact this would have for the country.  Go ahead, call me overly optimistic, but at this point, I think we need all of the optimism we can get.

Just over two weeks until SHOT Show and I can't wait to hear what Mez has to report from the State of the Industry Dinner.


Daddy Hawk said...

Maybe I read too much, but I've seen a lot of blogs commenting on the economic impact of a compulsory buy back. One post I saw looked at the impact of buying back the estimated 1,000,000 ARs bought in the last year or so. Averaging $1000 a pop, that's a billion alone just for one year's worth of AR demand. Another looked at England's program which started at 110% to 120% of agreed market value in the first phase reduced to 80% in the second, 50% in the third and give 'em up or go to jail in the fourth. No way we have the money to fund this kind of kibuki theater.

The real danger lies in the potential for a republican compromise to counter the Feinstein abomination. Feinstein knows full well her bill has no chance, BUT it puts a stake in the ground from which to start negotiating. Their aim is to get SOMETHING. The best thing the republicans can do is bury it in committee and then ignore it. It's probably too much to hope that they focus on the real issue: meaningful discussion on dealing mental health problems.

GunDiva said...

I obviously don't spend enough time scouring the interwebs.

I would think that one could look at the gun buying frenzy going on and realize that there are a whole lot of people who are not in favor of giving up their guns, what with a greater than six day wait for NICS.

agirlandhergun said...

I like your thinking and I am trying to be optomistic right along with you!

Double Tap said...

I don't know of many owners that are going to willingly give up their guns. I'm not sure how the Government would go about collecting up those that did not voluntarily sell their's back...Are they willing to forget about the 4th amendment along with the second? Would the door knockers also be able to shelve their moral values to implement an illegal order? I'm thinking not, but heck I thought the Healthcare law was unconstitutional too. Maybe Roberts would call it an AR tax...No, tyranny comes in all forms and political parties.